What did you think of that race at Texas? Personally, I found it entertaining however frustrating. NASCAR has put teams in a box with this next-gen car. There is little teams can do to manipulate the height of the cars. So what do teams do? They get creative. They lower air pressure to get the car lower and cause more downforce. In doing that, the tire is compromised. We saw on Sunday most of the cars that had tire issues were leading or out front. Fast cars go fast and low tire pressure put the car and driver in danger. NASCAR will fix this but needs to do this sooner rather than later for driver safety. Along with that also for handicapping. Rough week for me last week and it came down to blown tires. So heading to Talladega this weekend with these tire issues could spell for a more follow-the-leader type race there than what we have seen in the past. However, I am not looking at this as the glass half empty because stage points to the top 12 in points are gonna be huge.
“When the winds go cold and it blows October,
I think about us shoulder to shoulder,
Like those cars, my thoughts roll over and over and over,
In my mind.” Eric Church
What to look for?
This week the NASCAR cup series heads to Talladega for the Yellawood 500. This is sure to be an exciting race, especially from the standpoint of the stage finishes. Drivers and teams will be put to the test once again as they will have their fourth official superspeedway event of the season. So what have drivers and teams learned from the first three events in this next-gen car? Can we factor the Atlanta races into this weekend’s race at Talladega? So a few questions that I frankly do not have solid answers to either way but, of course, I will do my best to dissect them.
Let’s first start by saying no I will not look at Atlanta data for this weekend’s race. The ATL is its own monster. Leave that data out of the equation. So now that leaves us to Daytona and Talladega. If you have followed me for a few minutes you know that any time that one of these races comes up you know that I have put those tracks in their own separate categories. That might be a bit difficult to do I can see where pulling data especially speed data from the Daytona races could be beneficial. Daytona is more of a handling track than Talladega but with so little data with this new car I am not a fan of the one data point from Talladega so I am looking at all three SS races this year but giving more onus to the spring Talladega race over the other Daytona races.
Interesting at Superspeedways
Looking at the matchups over at betus.com one common theme is seen during this week’s races, especially before qualifying. Just about all matchups are at pick’em prices at -115 for both drivers. Just goes to show how much of a crap shoot this race is. Entertainment is at a high level however wagers shouldn’t be. Looking at our buddy JJ’s article over at betcrushers.com I see he has stayed conservative as well. I am backing off a bit this weekend for sure.
Let’s get to the pick
This week I am looking at the matchup of Blaney -110 vs Elliott -120. These are two playoff drivers who I thought were going in two different directions. On paper that isn’t the case 100 percent. Looking at the last six in the series Blaney holds an average finish of 15.8 with an average rating of 77.3 while NASCAR baby Jesus has an average finish of 19 with an average rating of 90.8. This is a bit of a wash due to Blaney having better finishes but Elliott is overall running better. Now, look at the last seven races here Blaney has an average finish of 11 with two wins while Elliott has an average finish of 14.4. In the previous three races at superspeedways, YRB holds an average finish of 10 to Elliott’s 15.3. Yes, Elliott did bring home that Napa ahead of Blaney the last time they raced here in the spring by 4 positions. Okay, one last piece I will leave you with before I reveal my take. Ford just seems to have their act together when it comes to these races and Elliott is probably the worst teammate when it comes to these races. So personally I give the lean to Blaney and with that last piece I am jumping on that 12 train to bring it home ahead of that Napa Chevy!