…then there were twelve.
Saturday Night Under The Lights
Saturday night saw the NASCAR Cup series cut down the cup-winning eligible drivers from 16 to 12. Being eliminated are RCR drivers Dillon and Reddick along with two former cup champions Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. An interesting mix of drivers for sure. Honestly, I didn’t see Busch, Harvick, and Reddick being eliminated here but poor runs and few stage points will catch up with you in these playoff rounds. I am sure it doesn’t help to have “crappy ass parts” in a few of the driver’s cases either.
We will not dwell on those facts but we do need to keep in mind drivers are being eliminated from playoff contention moving forward. Like I said, I find it difficult to play that playoff vs non-playoff driver match-up for sure. Unless of course, you get that sweet spot and a little even play on a playoff driver vs. a non-playoff driver. Likely that is not going to happen. These books reside in tall buildings for a reason.
Back to Texas
NASCAR returning to Texas for the first points-paying race of the season this Sunday at 3:30 pm ET. Looking back at the All-Star race here I can’t really pull a lot of data. New car, different configuration, and nearly 4 months difference make this extremely difficult to cap. At least I think so. Sometimes it’s difficult to get into a headspace to clearly pick these plays and this for me is one of those week. Howeve,r I have a little something for you!
A few leans
Looking at a few leans first. Looking at the match-up of Austin Dillon vs Chris Buescher both -115. Simply put I look at the hot hand here. I like Buescher here, he’s coming off a win. At the last mile and a half, the series was at Dillon bested Buescher by one position however I am leaning towards last week’s winner. The second lean I have is Bubba at -120 vs Logano -110. I personally would like to see this move to more of a Logano favorite but taking Bubba at -120 is not the worst thing you could do. Bubba won at Kansas a few weeks ago and has been bad fast just like the rest of the Toyota camp. Logano ran mid-pack at Kansas but ran well at Darlington. However, Darlington and Texas are two different animals. I lean toward Bubba here.
The Pick is in
After looking at the plays over at Betus.com and after reading our buddy JJ’s notes on over at betcrushers.com regarding this weeks race I have decided to play that Austin Dillon vs Chris Buescher -115. In fact I am trailing JJ on that Bell over Larson wager. So back to Buescher vs Dillon. Let’s look at the last six races in the series. Both drivers have won races however Buescher holds a 2.5 place advantage over the older Dillon brother. Christopher has 3 top 10s and 2 top 5s in his last 6 while Dillon has just one of each coming with that luck of a race at Daytona at the cut off race. Dillon has a better average finish here in the last five races 10.6 to 22.6. So consistency Dillon is the better driver however those RFK Fords have been much faster as of late and Buescher is on an uptick I feel. Give me that 17 for the win!
NASCAR Style Odds 